Francesca Chambers
WASHINGTON – War-torn Ukraine, reeling from an Oval Office meltdown between President Donald Trump and leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will get a do-over Tuesday when its negotiators meet with administration officials in Saudi Arabia.
After a dramatic Feb. 28 White House blowup derailed a minerals deal, roiled relations between the two countries and led to a U.S. cutoff of weapons and intelligence, Washington and Kyiv are hopeful they can repair relations and make progress on a truce with Russia.
The talks in Jeddah will be make or break.
“The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things, like the Russians are going to have to do difficult things, to end this conflict or at least pause it in some way, shape, or form,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters en route to the negotiations on Monday.
Ukraine begins in a deeper hole than it did two weeks ago following the fight between Trump and Zelenskyy during a White House meeting that spiraled out of control.
“We think we’re going to get things back on track,” National Security Advisor Michael Waltz said Friday.
Trump has been noncommittal about resuming assistance to Ukraine, saying over the weekend that the minerals agreement would not be enough. However, Rubio said Monday that Ukraine was currently receiving defensive intelligence information.
“I think the notion of the pause in aid, broadly, is something I hope we can resolve,” Rubio told reporters, framing the talks as key to support being turned back on.
Military assistance in flux
Trump’s administration said last Monday that it was halting and reviewing military assistance to Ukraine. It later said the pause would include intelligence.
U.S. officials say Trump had to halt the aid to get Ukraine’s attention.
“More than anything, it’s a forcing function to get to the realization that we want to go to a peace discussion,” special envoy to Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg said at a Council on Foreign Relations event last Thursday.
Russia has assaulted Ukraine with missiles and drones in the days since, and Trump threatened Moscow on Friday with sanctions. But he said he needs to be convinced that Ukraine is willing to make a deal to end the conflict for the U.S. to help Ukraine protect its airspace.
“If they don’t want to settle, we’re out of there, because we want them to settle,” Trump said.
Ukraine backers say Trump could pay a price if he sticks with the hold, much as former President Joe Biden did after a messy withdrawal from Afghanistan.
“If this lasts weeks or longer, I think that will be a disaster,” argued Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
Bowman, a former adviser to Republican senators on national security, added: “This could become Trump’s Afghanistan if he doesn’t reverse course on the weapons suspension fully and resume those weapons deliveries.”
Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned on Fox News Sunday, “If we pull the plug on Ukraine, it would be worse than Afghanistan.”
“Until we have a ceasefire, I would give Ukraine what they need in terms of intelligence and weapons to defend themselves,” Graham said.
Minerals agreement in play
Zelenskyy was in Saudi Arabia on Monday but will not be present during Tuesday’s talks. He said on social media the Ukrainian team would include top aide Andriy Yermak, foreign affairs minister Andriy Sybiha and defense minister Rustem Umerov.
“On our side, we are fully committed to constructive dialogue, and we hope to discuss and agree on the necessary decisions and steps,” he wrote on X. “Realistic proposals are on the table. The key is to move quickly and effectively.”
A proposed economic agreement that would give the U.S. access to proceeds from future investments in the development of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals was among the options.
“The minerals deal is on the table. That’s continuing to be worked on. It’s not part of this conversation per se,” Rubio said Monday. “It’s certainly a done the president wants to see done.”
Kellogg said last week that he’d been trying to get across to the Ukrainians that the minerals agreement was paramount to relations with the United States.
“This is something that is a big deal for us because President Trump is a transactional leader, and transactional starts with economics,” Kellogg said.
Trump said Sunday that he believed Ukraine would sign the minerals agreement, which he has presented as a tacit security guarantee, and publicly embrace the U.S.-led peace talks.
“They haven’t shown it to the extent that they should,” Trump said. “But I think they will be, and I think it’s going to become evident over the next two or three days.”
Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal
A minerals agreement and a temporary truce that doesn’t come with a security guarantee or deterrence mechanism would leave Ukraine exposed to continued Russian aggression, said Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University.
Zelenskyy may not sign a deal unless he has a commitment or good faith language telling him the U.S. will continue to work on some kind of security arrangement, she said.
“They don’t need to settle everything in this meeting, but what they do need to settle is that it’s not a take it or leave it situation for Ukraine,” said Farkas, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia in the Obama administration.
Zelenskyy proposed a ceasefire last week in which Russia and Ukraine would halt air and sea operations. He also called for an end to attacks on energy infrastructure and for the release of prisoners. Ukrainian officials were expected to discuss the proposal with their U.S. counterparts in Jeddah.
Graham said it is imperative for Trump’s team – led by Rubio and Waltz – to figure out what peace looks like for Ukraine. Then, he said, the U.S. can go to Russia and determine what is possible.
A peace agreement will require concessions from both sides, Rubio said Monday ahead of the talks with the Ukrainians, which the U.S. hopes to use to begin sketching out a peace agreement.
“We’re not going to be sitting in a room drawing lines on a map, but just get a general sense of what concessions are in the realm of the possible for them and what they would need in return, and then find out what the Russian position is in that regard,” he said. “And that’ll give us a pretty good assessment of how far apart we truly are.”
U.S. officials began having conversations in February with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government about a cessation in hostilities.
If Russia does not agree to formal peace talks, Graham said the U.S. should try to force Moscow’s hand.
Graham said he would be introducing a bill that would put sanctions on Russia’s banking and energy sectors. “If they don’t engage in ceasefire and peace talks with the administration, we should sanction the hell out of them,” the Republican senator said.
Trump maintains that Russia wants to end the war. But if Putin, who he spoke to by phone in February, does not enter into negotiations, Trump has said he would pursue sanctions, tariffs and other punishments.
So far he has not acted. But the administration says he still could.
“The president is going to use whatever tools he has at his disposal to try to get both sides to that table so this war will end,” Rubio said Monday.
